What Are the Signs Indicating about CD Sales for AI3 Winner? by James Shepherd (2004/06/09) The winners and contestants on the Idol television programs receive their primary, if not their sole initial marketing, through the medium of TV. Traditionally, the title winner and sometimes the first runner-up, release their first CD within weeks of the finale program which is usually viewed by a huge television audience. The first product for sale is a CD single and its sales is usually a guide as to how popular the winner really is and it's a relatively good gauge how well their CD album will do later on. Released singles as an item for purchase by the public does not happen too frequently these days, but the Idol franchises rely upon it very heavily, initially. Fantasia's first single is currently scheduled for release on June 22nd. We will probably know the full story on its first week of sales the following Wednesday - June 30th. The first week of sales for a CD single of this nature is critical, but what are the current signs for its success? I have been looking at them, and they are not good. First Sign - Nature of CD Single Traditionally, a single CD contains two songs. Fantasia's single, and Diana's as well, will contain three songs - or, at least, this is what has been announced. To be included in Fantasia's single are the following cuts: I Believe (an original, co-written by Tamyra Gray), Summertime (one of Fantasia's impressive numbers from the competition), and Chain of Fools (Fantasia's cut from the AI3 collections album). With three songs, this single is one-quarter of a full album. Why is the product being sweetened so much by throwing in Summertime? Is this a sign that 19 Management is looking at the signs too? Why is Diana's single coming out so soon as well? Her first single is scheduled to be released one week after Fantasia's. Does Simon Fuller want to repeat the buying competition that happened last year between the fan bases of Ruben and Clay? Yes, this creates a great environment for the selling of CDs, but I doubt there is much profit to be made in single sales in this day and age no matter what are the numbers sold; it's the CD albums that really make the money. However, setting Diana and Fantasia against one another in single sales could potentially create a buying flurry by the two fan bases. It's all really just a game of numbers and not profit with singles. Making the singles attractive for purchase and raising sales numbers through manipulated competition seem foremost in the mind of Mr. Fuller. Second Sign - Internet Presence Fans To me, this is a very significant sign. To keep it short, neither the fan bases of Fantasia or Diana have a very strong presence on the Internet. If you poke around on the 'Net, you will see few websites made or in the making for these two women. They each have a few discussion boards created by their own fans, but there is low membership and little activity on these boards. Of course, these terms "low" and "little" are relative, but if you poked around the Internet this time last year, you would have seen scores of websites and discussion boards devoted to Clay Aiken. Ruben did not have as many, but he most certainly had more than the combined sites and boards that Fantasia and Diana have at the present. You may think that this is an insignificant sign, I don't because the Internet is a place where a person's obsession with a particular Idol can be fairly easily manifested. It does not take a lot of skill, expertise or money to create a simple website or discussion board. Where are the fans of these two girls on the Internet? This is not a good sign at all and what this lack of presence may indicate is that Fantasia and Diana have very few hard and loyal fans. Third Sign - Voting in the Competition Itself Both Fantasia and Diana stood on the chopping block for elimination from the competition several times. What this shows is that neither really had, throughout the entire Top 12 competition, a large enough fan base to consistently vote them through. This is not meant to criticize their talent, but near the end of the competition, most of the other competitors that could have given a far better challenge to their final placement were eliminated much too early. Of course, this does not say much about these "other" competitors since they were eliminated, but this brings out one of the major failings of this AI3 competition overall - it just was not that good in the sense that no one really stood out from the beginning as the "one to beat." Please do not get me wrong. I think that Fantasia Barrino is an exceptional performer. I would not go as far as did Simon Cowell when he said that Fantasia stands above all of the Idol competitors from all over the world - particularly since I have not witnessed most of the competitions, and I doubt that Simon has either. Come to think about it, how could Cowell make such an wide-sweeping statement... but that's beside the point. The fact is, no matter how wonderful Fantasia Barrino really is, the voting public almost eliminated her a couple of time in the competition, and now they are expected to buy her first CD single by the cartload? I don't think so. Predictions on Sales of Their Single CDs This is where it gets dicey, and I have had very little luck in predicting the final outcomes for the voting results throughout the AI3 competition. Therefore, the balance of this article is something you should perhaps skip over since if I can not predict the right competitors to pass through the competition, it is doubtful I can predict the correct number of sales for the single CDs coming out in the next few weeks. Regardless, I will keep these predictions very general, and they are based upon the signs as listed above. My first prediction is that the first week sales for Fantasia's debut single CD will be no more than 200,000 units. My second prediction is that Diana's first week sales or her CD will not exceed 250,000 units. Of course, what this would mean is a further prediction that Diana will best Fantasia in first week sales figures, but not by much - basically, I sense that Diana's fans are a bit more motivated - when you are number 2, there is something to prove. There is a final prediction, that is slightly off topic, but it has to do with Clay Aiken's current single CD - "Solitaire/The Way." I predict that there will be a small spike in sales of this single in the same week that Fantasia's single is released. It should not interfere with or overtake Fantasia's CD in sales. What this spike will represent is the fan base of Clay saying, in its own way, "Idol found, game over." And that's about all I have for predictions. posted by Yee 12:52 PM . . .
